2020 Predictions for the Next Decade
As we move into a new decade, here are my predictions which, like any good startup, will be mostly wrong. But, I’m swinging the bat at these insight-driven predictions based on user-behavior, human nature and psychology.
Over the past two decades, technology has changed immensely. The global landscape has gotten closer in digital proximity and technology is woven into the daily social fabric of our work and lives.
This list is by no means exhaustive, as I’m leaving out major technological developments and categories, like Transportation and Self-driving cars, to name one of many. Rather, this list is a random list of thoughts that come to mind when I reflect on where we’ve been and where we might be headed.
Would love to hear if you agree, disagree, or just plain don’t like the predictions at all.
Happy 2020 and beyond ❤
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Influencers will become the brands
Influencers who have engaged audiences of all sizes (10k+ followers), will start to monetize their audiences not through content and sponsorships, but through products that they develop independently from major brands.
Influencers will not rely on cross-branded sponsorship opportunities from major corporations as much as they used to, since they will find ways to become the companies themselves and, in turn, will retain more money and control in the products that they develop and promote.
New startups will develop around this ecosystem to support it.
Prosumer tools will take off
Prosumer tools, especially in the Design-stack, will become more popular for new tech companies to develop. Consumers will be willing to pay for tools that help them develop their content, image, and personal brand — especially tools that allow them to monetize their interests and hobbies on a micro-scale.
B2B SaaS platforms will become more vertical
SaaS platforms will be developed for verticals, especially in business categories where tech has been lagging for so many years. Any business that doesn’t have tech created for it and adopted into its business model at this point, will be disrupted by vertical SaaS platforms. New SaaS opportunities will arise and be built out of, what were once, “tiny features” of Legacy SaaS platforms. The Legacy platforms will have to adapt, or they will be disrupted and become less relevant as businesses migrate to platforms that help them operate their businesses more effectively.
People will begin to rent more things than they own
People will rent houses, cars, tools, computers and furniture, amongst many other items, rather than own them. They will do this to manage cashflow, personal leverage, and their ability to be mobile and autonomous in their personal + professional footprint.
People will be more mobile in their life footprint
It will be normal for people move cities every few years, so that they can experience more of the world. Remote work will be a catalyst for making this happen. Young professionals without families will travel and be digital nomads in the knowledge economy, before settling down in a single location for a set period of time.
Micro-platforms for social engagement will surface
Major Social platforms (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok) will continue to exist, but long-tail social platforms will pop up and communities will be built around them. A person may choose to be part of many micro-platforms, rather than a few big ones. This will allow people to connect on a deeper level with others who share their specific interests— Hunting communities, D&D communities, Cricket communities, amongst others.
AI / Machine Learning and personalization of products and services will be status quo
Machine Learning will be integral for every successful business to succeed, and it will implemented into the fabric of tech as we know it. Now, more than ever, people expect personalization for the products, services and experiences that they consume. AI + ML will improve people’s lives by knowing them better than they know themselves. Feedback loops for personal data, driven by ML, will help people understand their habits, routines and behaviors which, in turn, will give them a better quality of life.
AI + Remote Healthcare will become status quo
Healthcare will be driven by remote doctors and specialists around the world. AI will replace doctors for simple checkups and diagnosis, which will drive the cost of global healthcare down, especially in countries like the US where healthcare is unaffordable for many people.
Cryptocurrencies will struggle to find a home
Excitement about Crypto will cool down, as people try to figure out how to integrate it into payments across the existing company and consumer infrastructure. It will fail to be adopted by the majority of people, which will refrain it from being useful as a monetary unit for remitting payment.
Rather, Crypto will be used as a digital vehicle for investment, but will not have the growth and excitement that people once thought it would have. Fewer startups and tech companies will be focused on Crypto as a business opportunity, but will continue to focus on Crypto as an investment opportunity. Currencies will grow, but not at the rate that they once did over the course of 2010–2019.
The surge in Neo-banks, and their seamless integrations with multiple currencies around the world, will be one of the reasons for Cryptocurrencies, like Ripple and Bitcoin, not acting as global currencies for trade and commerce.
Neo banks will start to consolidate
Existing brick and mortar banks will begin to lose customers, much like cable companies became disrupted by online streaming, over the course of 2020–2030
New, younger customers will use Neo banks, which fit into their lifestyle and learn their habits. Existing B&M banks will be used by the older generation that don’t like to change their routines and don’t care to adopt new technologies.
Layoffs at existing banks will happen and smaller satellite branches will close to reduce their density and footprint across cities, as the banks lose business and will need to minimize their overhead and real estate infrastructure
B2B Neo Banks
Neo banks will become more prevalent for businesses and startups, not just consumers. Unlike Brex, which is focused on credit, these digital B2B banks will be focused on commerce, transactions, and loaning money at lower rates than VCs, where an equity position isn’t taken in the company. Banks, like ClearBanc are already paving the way for this to become a reality with a competitive B2B banking landscape surfacing in the 2020's.
B2B Neo banks will be a way to democratize VC. The market and consumers will decides what they like by voting with their dollars, as opposed to VCs deciding what to fund. It will give an opportunity for successful, non-unicorn businesses to pop up and thrive in micro-communities all around the world.
People won’t work as support staff at the B2B Neo Banks. Rather, much of it will be AI-driven and led by bots. The majority of the people that work at the B2B Neo banks will be developers, designers, product managers, operations teams, finance teams, as well as marketing and sales teams.
Funding rounds will be down in number, but up in size
There will be more capital and funds than ever, but it will be challenging for startups to raise capital. The ecosystem of great startups around the world is growing, and becoming more competitive and connected. VC’s will be looking for greater and greater returns, and will be Unicorn hunting — looking for the next $100B+ companies to fund.
Unit-economics and profitability will be a major focus for VC’s when looking at startup traction.
Silicon Valley will continue to be integral to the startup and tech ecosystem
Startup ecosystems will become relevant outside of Silicon Valley, but SV will continue to be a cluster for tech talent, resources, knowledge and capital — leading the way in the world.
VC Funds will become more international in scope
More funds, especially larger ones, will continue to establish a foothold in large tech communities outside of the US. They will engage with the communities through scouts and satellite offices in countries such as Israel, India, China and Brazil, amongst others.
India will leapfrog other countries in its tech boom
India (over China and other countries) will thrive with its tech sector. More startups will mature and grow up faster, with more capital being allocated to people across the country. India’s current tech sector, complemented with its deep pool of engineering resources, will create more unicorns than ever before. Capital from global investors will flow to India, over countries like China, due to the political stability of India, as opposed to China.
Diversity and Inclusion initiatives will become more prevalent for businesses than ever before
Companies will not only be conscious of D&I initiatives being important for business, but will take active measures to make their products, services, and opportunities more accessible.
It will no longer acceptable for businesses to sit on their hands and unconsciously exclude people from recruiting initiatives, and product + services offerings.
Companies will begin to take action to expose themselves to different communities, and will make an effort to be more inclusive in their lens on what it means to be truly accessible to the global population.
We will have a recession in the early 2020's
We will have a smaller scale recession than we had in 2008. It will affect how consumers spend money on unnecessary items, such as subscriptions.
Established businesses (30 years+) with poor business models, unit economics and high burn rates will fail. Light-weight, tech-focused companies will enter the market in their place — with fewer people, less overhead, and better inventory management.
